The short answer
The tax credit most people were counting on ended, the Virginia rebates still haven’t opened, and two rules everyone was told to plan around changed or stalled. If you’re replacing a furnace, heat pump or AC in Northern Virginia this winter, here’s what’s actually true now.
The part most people don’t know
Plenty of quotes and articles from 2025 still promise a federal tax credit that’s gone. The IRS energy efficient home improvement credit paid back 30% of the cost, up to $1,200 a year, or $2,000 for a heat pump or heat pump water heater. The IRS page now says it covers improvements made through December 31, 2025. A system installed in 2026 doesn’t qualify. Our tax credit guide goes through it.
The $67 Heating Check
We check your furnace, heat pump or boiler before winter. Through December 31. See the offer
1. The federal tax credit ended
If a quote you’re holding counts the 30% credit, take it out of the math. Ask whoever wrote it what the price is without it.
2. Virginia’s big rebates still aren’t open
Virginia’s home energy rebate programs have been announced for a long time: up to $14,000 per household under HEAR, with up to $8,000 of that for a heat pump, and up to $8,000 under HOMES. As of the October 13, 2026 update to Virginia Energy’s rebate FAQ, they haven’t launched, and the state says it can’t give an estimated date. Don’t put off a failing system waiting on them.
3. R-410A systems can still be installed
New central air systems and heat pumps now ship with newer refrigerants like R-454B, which our R-454B guide explains. There was supposed to be a January 1, 2026 cutoff for installing split systems that use the older R-410A, but the EPA removed that deadline for systems made or imported before January 1, 2025. The wider rule is being challenged in court. If a quote shows an R-410A system, ask why, and ask how easy it’ll be to get refrigerant for it in ten years.
4. The 95% furnace rule is in court
A Department of Energy rule would require most new gas furnaces to hit 95% efficiency starting December 18, 2028. In June the Supreme Court sent the challenge back to the appeals court, and per ACHR News the department has proposed delaying the rule. Nothing is final. 80% furnaces are still sold and installed. Our old furnace efficiency post shows what the difference costs in gas.
5. The tankless water heater rule was withdrawn
A 2024 rule would have raised the efficiency standard for gas tankless water heaters. Congress disapproved it, and the Department of Energy withdrew it in May 2025. Gas tankless models are still available the way they were. Our tank vs tankless guide covers which one fits a Northern Virginia house.
6. Virginia’s AC minimum is higher than the North’s
Since January 1, 2023, a new split central air conditioner installed in Virginia has had to be at least 14.3 SEER2 for a typical home size, against 13.4 in the northern states, under the Department of Energy regional standards. Old equipment already in the house can stay and be repaired. A replacement has to meet the new number.
What it means for your quote
Prices moved this year too: our HVAC prices in 2026 post covers why, and the Dominion rate increase raises the cost of running an old, inefficient system. Holding a quote already? Our free second opinion sends a tech to look at the system you were quoted on and tell you what it actually needs, with our price if you want it. You don’t owe us anything for looking. If it is time, the estimator shows installed prices with $1,500 off a new heating and cooling system already in them, and if you get your estimate this week, a basic single-stage gas furnace comes free with a new AC and its matching coil, installed together. Trane is also taking up to $900 off a qualifying Trane system, sold by November 15, installed by December 1: the Trane rebate.
The system we put in first
Built to take a beating. Put in by our crew.
Heat lamps, snow and rain on one outdoor unit: that’s Trane’s own film. We’re a Trane Comfort Specialist, on Trane’s own dealer locator, and when you pick a Trane, our crew puts it in.
Films: Trane’s own.
Book it
Book the heating check, call (703) 997-9757, or book online from goswiftpro.com/cookiesoffer and a box of warm cookies comes with the visit. Rated 5.0 stars across 1,138 reviews on Google, Angi, Yelp, the BBB and Facebook, Virginia Class A license 2705192276.
Questions people ask
Is there a federal tax credit for HVAC in 2026?
No. The IRS energy efficient home improvement credit covered improvements made through December 31, 2025. A system installed in 2026 doesn’t qualify.
Are Virginia’s heat pump rebates available?
Not yet. As of Virginia Energy’s October 13, 2026 update, the HEAR and HOMES rebate programs haven’t launched, and the state can’t give an estimated date.
Can R-410A systems still be installed in 2026?
Yes, for split systems made or imported before January 1, 2025. The EPA removed the January 1, 2026 installation deadline for them. New systems mostly use R-454B.
Is the 95% furnace efficiency rule in effect?
No. It’s dated December 18, 2028 on paper, the case is back in the appeals court, and the Department of Energy has proposed delaying it. 80% furnaces are still sold and installed.
What is the minimum SEER2 for an AC in Virginia?
14.3 SEER2 for a typical home split system central air conditioner, the Southeast standard since January 1, 2023. Northern states are at 13.4.
